1 Modelling crop pattern changes and water resources 2 exploitation : a case study 3

Agriculture and farming worldwide are responsible for numerous environmental threats, 11 including degradation of land and water resources depletion. Underlining the dynamic interaction 12 between bio-physical and socio-economic drivers is the key towards a more sustainable land and 13 water management. With regard to a highly developed agricultural area in southern Italy, 14 multi-regression models were developed to interpret the observed inter-annual variability of 15 cropped land. Main drivers related to Common Agricultural Policy support, product market 16 prices, crop yield and irrigation water availability were investigated. The adopted models revealed 17 the different weighs of each driver. The findings reported the role that direct payments played in 18 supporting the extension of irrigated crops, such as processing tomato. Likewise, the models 19 pointed to decoupled payment scheme as the most important driver of change in the crop pattern 20 over the last years. 21